Matt Forte to IR...and an Uncertain Future

Salute: Pro Football Rumors

Following eight productive seasons with the Bears, Matt Forte joined the Jets this past offseason on a three-year, $12MM deal ($8MM guaranteed). Forte ultimately recorded career-lows in rushing yards (813), receptions (30), and receiving yards (263) during his first season with the team. The 31-year-old has been battling knee and shoulder injuries for some time, and the running back revealed last week that he’s been playing with a torn meniscus for much of the season. Forte hasn’t recorded more than 10 carries in a game since late November.

Bilal Powell, Week 14 through Week 16, scored 66.9 points and finished the year with 160.5, good for 22nd overall.  Forte scored a total of 176.2, 19th overall.  Forte's contract still has two more seasons to run, with cap hits of $5M in 2017 and $4M in 2018.  His dead money numbers are $6M in '17 and $1M in '18.

As for the Jets, they have some cap issues going forward.  The team is over the cap this season and has just $1.089M next year (only the Cowboys have less available cap space).  Forte may be one-and-done in Gotham.  In the Total Insanity Football League, his cap number was an unsightly $44; a base value unlikely to be extended for 2017.  If he is on the auction block next year, $25 is a number I would feel comfortable with if he stays in New York.  Powell has cap hits of $4.6M and $4.8M over the next two seasons; and if the Jets cannot move on from Darrelle Revis' $15M next season, Forte could be a casualty of the cap.  And should he move elsewhere, pay close attention to the circumstances.  $25 may be too high in the wrong situation.  In the right place, $25 could be a bargain because even at age 31 on Opening Day next season, he has kept himself in fabulous shape and should have some gas left in the tank.

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Michael Floyd Could Be In a Lot of Trouble

Salute: Pro Football Rumors

Patriots receiver Michael Floyd could face a mandatory 180 days in jail, not the previously reported 45, for his Dec. 12 arrest in Arizona on a Super Extreme DUI charge, report Mortensen and Adam Schefter. Whether the harsher punishment will enter the fray will come down to whether the courts in Arizona regard this as a second offense for Floyd, who has a prior DUI arrest under his belt from his time at Notre Dame. If Floyd gets 180 days, it could put his availability for next season in jeopardy. The impending free agent is currently slated for a pretrial hearing on Feb. 24, just two weeks before he’s scheduled to hit the open market.

Floyd was a massive disappointment this season, scoring just 94 points (leader Antonio Brown has 281).  If he can avoid 180 days in the clink and recover from whatever funk he was in before being released by the Cardinals, he could be an extremely valuable weapon for Tom Brady.  That said, taking unnecessary risks on a guy coming off a DUI, release, and poor season, well, let someone else spend the money.

In the Total Insanity Football League this year, Floyd earned $20.  He was drafted at base value $16 in 2015 and extended through this year.  If you can draft Floyd for less than, say, $7, it may be worth the risk, especially if he's in New England.  But, I wouldn't spend much more.  Stay tuned.  The court docket in Arizona will predict more accurately Michael Floyd's 2017 season than any transaction or off-season workouts.

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I Spent A Lot For This Running Back and All I Got Was A Headache!

Top 20 Highest-Paid Running Backs 2016
Adrian Peterson $74

Ezekiel Elliott $61

Latavius Murray $51

Mark Ingram $50

Carlos Hyde $48

LeSean McCoy $48

Matt Forte $44

Todd Gurley $43

T.J. Yeldon $43

Le'Veon Bell $42

Eddie Lacy $42

Melvin Gordon $40

Danny Woodhead $40

Jamaal Charles $37

Jonathan Stewart $36

DeMarco Murray $35

Doug Martin $32

Thomas Rawls $29

Ameer Abdullah $28

Giovani Bernard $28

Following the 2015 season, all the cool kids dropped their running backs and decided to start fresh in 2016.  And why not?  For the first time since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, the top ten wide receivers averaged more points than the top ten running backs.  Wide receivers were cheap and plentiful and didn't carry the risks that running backs did.  But, the list above shows you how out of whack this philosophy is to microeconomic reality.  A ROOKIE RUNNING BACK went for $61!  61!  That's 20% of that team's salary cap in one shot.

Teams were desperate.  Of these 20, 14 were drafted in 2016.  The six carryovers (in italics above) provided a mixed bag.  Peterson and Charles were hurt and missed the majority of the season.  Gurley was ineffective with the worst offense in football.  McCoy and Bell were top five running backs and Doug Martin was injured, ineffective, and finished the season with a four-game suspension which will carry over into the first three games of 2017.

Of the 2016 draftees, Ezekiel Elliott (317 points) proved to be worth the $61 spent on him, finishing as the number two running back.  Only DeMarco Murray (279 points), Melvin Gordon (240 points), and Mark Ingram (207 points) cracked the 200-point barrier.  The rest?  Yuck.

The best running back, and likely the MVP of the fantasy football world was Arizona's David Johnson (381 points).  His price?  $10.  And this is the difference between Franchise Fantasy Football and the rest of the fantasy football universe.  Drafting astutely means getting great talent at a low salary and keeping the player for the long run.  Johnson's owner, who finished as league runner-up in 2016, controls him through 2021 for just a total of $102.  Going forward, Johnson will count just $13 in 2017, $16 in 2018, $18 in 2019, $21 in 2020, and $24 in 2021 again his team's salary cap of $300.  THIS is how you build a winning dynasty.

You can learn how to set up, start, and play your Franchise Fantasy Football League is my book, which contains many correctly-spelled words and entertaining footnotes.  It is available here:  BUY THE BOOK HERE.  Signed/inscribed copies are available at no extra cost.

Thank you for your kind attention and please give generously when the hat is passed.

The Blog of the Revolution!

What you are about to begin reading is a chronicle of a new and better way to play fantasy football.  I created Franchise Fantasy Football and a league to play it in 2004.  The league is called the Total Insanity League; a 12-team league with rosters of 20.  Each team is granted $300 in salary cap funds each season.  

The draft process of all fantasy football leagues attempts to impose parity among member teams.  Most do so in a clumsy manner.  The typical one-and-done leagues that utilize a snake draft attempt to gain parity by drawing lots for draft order.  Thus, your season could be shot to hell merely by random chance even before your first-round pick tears an ACL.

Further, the one-and-done league screws early-season success by establishing a waiver process that makes teams that start fast have no chance to replace injured players or find some undrafted talent.

Random chance will not always be in your favor.

Franchise Fantasy Football, in summation, is a Dynasty League with an auction draft and salary cap.  The auction value of each player establishes his base salary which increases over the length of his contract, should you choose to extend a player.  For example:  If you draft a player for $10 in Year 1, you can extend that player in perpetuity.  For this example, you want to have this player for two more years.  His salaries would thus be $13 for Year 2 and $16 for Year 3.  There is a very simple worksheet that shows salary progressions for each base-level contract.

In Franchise Fantasy Football, parity is established by the use of a salary cap.  All teams begin with the same amount of money.  After the draft, all teams use what is left over of their annual allotment for in-season free agent signings.  And, because we have a weekly free agent auction, the bottom-feeders do not have an unfair advantage over other teams.  Because we bid on our free agents, the only limit to getting the injury replacement you need is your willingness to bid enough to get your man.

Franchise Fantasy Football is discussed in depth in my book, "Franchise Fantasy Football: A Fantasy Football Revolution," available now.  This handsome 242-page tome will be a proud addition to your personal library.  The book contains a comprehensive draft history which details every single auction price for every player ever drafted in the league along with a concise Constitution for your league.  There are also tips and in-depth explanations which allow you to start your own Franchise Fantasy Football League.  Get your copy today.

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Welcome to the Blog of the Revolution.  You will learn more about our game and enjoy analysis of current NFL players as their skills pertain to Franchise Fantasy Football.

I am glad you're here and I look forward to communicating with you.

Johnny Skidmore

Author.  Raconteur.  Helluva guy.