Fantasy Football Revolution

It was the readers and the listeners that inspired me to take a deep dive on the position. I wanted to investigate whether our frustrations were founded and things were worse than I thought. Bad news: it got even worse the last month of the year.

Our top fantasy tight end was Travis Kelce. He scored just 200 points in 2016. Part of the reason for the dearth of tight end production was the absence of Rob Gronkowski for most of the season. He not only sets the standard at the position, but he brings up the average for everyone else. Gronk scored 237 points in 2015, 245 in 2014, and a massive 308 in 2011. He was injured for portions of 2012 and 2013, scoring 112 and 186 points, respectively.

As for 2017, I am wary of Gronk. I made him my second-round pick in my one-and-done league last year and his absence helped wreck my season (my other picks weren't great either). When healthy, his value equals a top-25 receiver. After another year of injuries? Buyer beware.

Steelers Believe Big Ben Will Return

Steelers President Art Rooney II told reporters Tuesday that he recently had “a good conversation” with Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and believes Roethlisberger will play next season.

For whatever reason, Ben Roethlisberger has never gotten the respect he deserves in the auction draft. Year after year, he's a top 10 QB and year after year, owners shy away from paying him more than $10 or so. Roethlisberger was the #9 QB in 2016 with 311 points. He is a serious bargain for what our owners pay him. I would be comfortable going up to the $25-$30 range for 2017.

On an unrelated note, between retirement talk for Roethlisberger and the recent Antonio Brown kerfuffle, maybe Steelers fans should avoid the newspaper there for awhile.

Will Larry Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer Return?

“Neither one has come to a decision. It’s up to them.

Fitzgerald is still a very good fantasy wide receiver. He finished 2016 as the 12th-highest-scoring receiver with 203 points. Palmer wasn't as good, finishing 21st at his position with 269 points. At auction, Fitzgerald is still worth around $20, give or take a couple bucks. Palmer, at this point in his career, isn't worth double-digit salary numbers. And if you have him, he's not worth extending because of the possibility of retirement.

On Opening Day, Fitzgerald will be 34-years-old and Palmer 37. Neither number is out of line to continue their careers.

From a team standpoint, Arizona can't really afford to lose either player because replacements are not already in place. Michael Floyd was cut after an arrest late in the season and when Palmer is out, there isn't a quality back-up. For a team that struggled last season and missed the playoffs, losing both is a killer.

Relax Pittsburgh: Art Rooney II is Sane

"He’s a hard worker, so he’s another player we’re hoping to address his contract and have him here for the long term.”

I guess newspaper sales are down in Pittsburgh these days because I cannot imagine any concrete reason why you would give up on a guy who went 106/1284/12 last season.

From a fantasy perspective, Brown was again the top-scoring receiver in 2016 with 281 points. Brown was also the top receiver in 2014 and 2015. If you are bidding on him in an auction, he's worth $50+. He's also a three-time Pro Bowler. In other words, he's really good at tackle football and you should draft him if you can.

Pittsburgh Columnist Loses Mind Over Antonio Brown

Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette recently opined that the Steelers should try to trade Brown, due to the salary cap and the reality that, as Brown approaches his 29th birthday, a decline could be coming. Some of the assertions contained in the column, however, should make any potential buyers wary.

Perhaps Mr. Cook has a replacement in mind for arguably the best WR in the game? This is insanity. Yeah, the guy is a headache, but holy crap, can he play. Remember, all the great coaches in the history of the game dealt with headaches, too. But, they never traded the headaches until their production could be replaced.

I certainly hope Pittsburgh realizes this.

Monday, January 30, 2017

2016 Fantasy Football Busts

Salute: NFL.com

Using that standard (with the ADP coming from Fantasy Football Calculator) there were 13 players drafted in the first two rounds who finished 12 spots below their ADP in 2016.

Prospects Who Improved Their Fantasy Value at Senior Bowl

Salute: NFL.com

If NFL teams are paying attention, then it's probably smart for astute fantasy players to take notice as well. Along those lines, here are six players who helped their draft stock last week in Mobile with some (very) early idea on whether they could potentially be impact fantasy option in 2017.

Top Ten Senior Bowl Prospects

Every situation is unique, but the one constant is that evaluators take everything into consideration from the weigh-in, to practices, to interviews, to game action. With Senior Bowl week behind us, these players helped themselves the most at the week-long event:

Top 10 Likely NFL Free Agents

At this time of year, the list of prospective free agents always looks mouth-watering, with names like Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell, Chiefs S Eric Berry, Panthers DT Kawann Short and Redskins QB Kirk Cousins among those slated to hit the open market, but a large portion of the top-end talent will either be re-signed or franchise tagged, keeping them with their current teams and away from the clutches of potential rivals.

Instead, let’s take a look at 10 of the best players that are more likely to be available once free agency officially opens:

Early 2017 Dynasty Position Rankings WR/TE

All listed ages are for next season’s opening day. These rankings are based on standard scoring and would only change slightly for PPR. Like we did with quarterback and running back, you’ll notice that these rankings prioritize youth.

The Giants Seek Excuses

“Looking back on it, it definitely wasn’t worth it,” Cruz said.

I live in Wisconsin. If I had the time and the means, I would have done the same thing. If New York wins, nobody cares. Friends, Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense had more to do with the Giants loss at Lambeau than did a one-day trip to Florida. If a trip was the cause, why didn't Dallas beat the Packers? They didn't go anywhere and they had a FULL WEEK off.

Devonta Freeman Would Like Some Money, Please

“Patience and timing are everything,” Freeman said. “I’ve got a family to feed, and I don’t want to struggle anymore. Now, I can see it, feel it, taste it. But I’ve got to finish strong and not think about the money this week — we’ve got too much to play for. After that, well, I feel like I’ve done my part. Now, hopefully, I’ll get rewarded.”

The former fourth-round pick is scheduled to make $690K in 2017 in the third year of a four-year rookie deal. Thus, win or lose, his leverage may not be great because of the presence of Tevin Coleman, who has turned the Atlanta RB position into a very effective platoon.

Freeman finished with 243 fantasy points, the sixth-highest RB. In 2015, he was the #2 scoring running back.

John Lynch is Surprised, Too.

Salute: Detroit Free Press

“Two weeks ago I never thought I’d be doing this,” he said, via Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com.

Stories about additional hires to support Lynch indicate the club will interview Denver's Director of College Scouting Adam Peters and former Tampa Bay GM Mark Dominik.

You, however, should stay near your phone. Just in case.

Sunday, January 29, 2017

2017 NFL Calendar

Here are all the important dates in 2017 for the National Football League. Dates are subject to change.

January 1 -- Week 17

January 2 -- Clubs may begin signing free agent players for the 2017 season.

January 2 -- Clubs may renegotiate or extend the rookie contract of a drafted rookie who was selected in the 2014 NFL Draft. Any permissible renegotiated or extended player contract will not be considered a rookie contract, and will not be subject to the rules that limit rookie contracts.

January 2 -- Option exercise period begins for fifth-year option for first-round selections from the 2014 NFL Draft. To exercise the option, the club must give written notice to the player on or after January 2, but prior to May 3.

January 7-8 -- Wild Card Playoff Games.

January 8-9 -- Assistant coaches under contract to playoff clubs that have byes in the Wild Card games may be interviewed for head coaching positions through the conclusion of the Wild Card games.

January 10 -- Coaches of non-playoff clubs are free to discuss employment if contract is due to expire.

January 14-15 -- Divisional Playoff Games.

January 15 -- Assistant coaches under contract to playoff clubs that won their Wild Card games may be interviewed for head coaching positions through the conclusion of the Divisional Playoff games.

January 16 -- Deadline for college players that are underclassmen to apply for special eligibility. A list of players who are accepted into the NFL Draft will be sent to clubs on January 20.

January 21 -- East-West Shrine Game, Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida.

January 21 -- NFLPA Collegiate Bowl, StubHub Center, Carson, California.

January 22 -- AFC and NFC Championship Games.

January 28 -- Senior Bowl, Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama.

January 29 -- NFL Pro Bowl, Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida.

January 29 -- An assistant coach whose team is participating in the Super Bowl, who has previously interviewed for another clubâ€™s head coaching job, may have a second interview with such club no later than the Sunday preceding the Super Bowl.

January 31 -- Deadline for NFL clubs to try out and negotiate with CFL players whose 2016 contracts are due to expire at 12 noon, New York time, on February 14.

February 5 -- Super Bowl LI, NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas.

February 6 -- Waiver system begins for 2017.

February 11 -- NFL Regional Combines, Virginia Mason Athletic Center, Seattle, Washington.

February 14 -- Beginning at 12 noon, New York time, NFL clubs may begin to sign players whose 2016 CFL contracts have expired. Players under contract to a CFL club for the 2017 season or who have an option for the 2017 season are not eligible to be signed.

February 15 -- First day for clubs to designate Franchise or Transition Players.

February 18 -- NFL Regional Combines, Methodist Training Center, Houston, Texas.

February 25-26* -- NFL Regional Combines, Inova Sports Performance Center, Washington, D.C. (*Kicker/Punter Combine)

February 28-March 6 -- NFL Scouting Combine, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana.

March 1 -- Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, deadline for clubs to designate Franchise or Transition Players.

March 4 --NFL Regional Combines, Minnesota Vikings Practice Facility, Eden Prairie, Minnesota.

March 7-9 -- Clubs are permitted to contact, and enter into contract negotiations with the certified agents of players who will become Unrestricted Free Agents upon the expiration of their 2016 Player Contracts at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 9. However, a contract cannot be executed with a new club until 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 9.

March 9 -- Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, clubs must exercise options for 2017 on all players who have option clauses in their 2016 contracts.

March 9 -- Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, clubs must submit qualifying offers to their Restricted Free Agents with expiring contracts and to whom they desire to retain a Right of First Refusal/Compensation.

March 9 -- Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, clubs must submit a Minimum Salary Tender to retain exclusive negotiating rights to their players with expiring 2016 contracts and who have fewer than three accrued seasons of free agency credit.

March 9 -- Top-51 Begins. All clubs must be under the 2017 salary cap prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time.

March 9 -- All 2016 player contracts will expire at 4:00 p.m., New York time.

March 9 -- The 2017 league year and free agency period begin at 4:00 p.m., New York time.

The first day of the 2017 league year will end at 11:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 9. Clubs will receive a personnel notice that will include all transactions submitted to the league office during the period between 4:00 p.m., New York time, and 11:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 9.

March 9 -- Trading period for 2017 begins at 4:00 p.m., New York time, after expiration of all 2016 contracts.

March 11 -- NFL Regional Combines, New Orleans Saints Training Facility, Metairie, Louisiana.

March 26-29 -- Annual League Meeting, Phoenix, Arizona.

April 3 -- Clubs that hired a new head coach after the end of the 2016 regular season may begin offseason workout programs.

April 17 -- Clubs with returning head coaches may begin offseason workout programs.

April 21 -- Deadline for Restricted Free Agents to sign offer sheets.

April 27-29 -- 2017 NFL Draft, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

May 5-8 -- Clubs may elect to hold their one three-day post-Draft rookie minicamp from Friday through Sunday or Saturday through Monday.

May 9 -- Deadline for Prior Club to send "May 9 Tender" to its unsigned Unrestricted Free Agents. If the player has not signed a Player Contract with a club by July 22 or the first scheduled day of the first NFL training camp, whichever is later, he may negotiate or sign a Player Contract from that date until the Tuesday following the 10th weekend of the regular season, at 4:00 p.m., New York time, only with his Prior Club.

May 12-15 -- Clubs may elect to hold their one three-day post-Draft rookie minicamp from Friday through Sunday or Saturday through Monday.

May 15 -- Rookie Football Development Programs begin.

May 18-21 -- NFLPA Rookie Premiere. Invited Rookies (typically, first and/or second-round selections) must be permitted by their respective clubs to attend. Such players are unavailable for offseason workouts, OTA days, and minicamps during this period.

May 22-24 -- Spring League Meeting, Chicago, Illinois.

June 1 -- Deadline for Prior Club to send "June 1 Tender" to its unsigned Restricted Free Agents who received a qualifying offer for a Right of First Refusal Only in order for such player to be subject to the CBAâ€™s "June 15 Tender" provision.

June 2 -- For any player removed from the club's roster or whose contract is assigned via waivers or trade on or after June 2, any unamortized signing bonus amounts for future years will be included fully in Team Salary at the start of the 2018 League Year.

June 15 -- Deadline for club to withdraw qualifying offer to Restricted Free Agents and still retain exclusive negotiating rights by substituting "June 15 Tender" of one-year contract at 110 percent of the player's prior-year Paragraph 5 Salary (with all other terms of his prior-year contract carried forward unchanged).

Late June -- Rookie Transition Program to be held at individual clubs. Attendance is mandatory for all rookies.

July 15 -- At 4:00 p.m., New York time, deadline for any club that designated a Franchise Player to sign such player to a multiyear contract or extension. After this date, the player may sign only a oneyear contract with his prior club for the 2017 season, and such contract cannot be extended until after the club's last regular season game.

Mid-July -- Clubs are permitted to open preseason training camp for rookies and first-year players beginning seven days prior to the clubâ€™s earliest permissible mandatory reporting date for veteran players.

Veteran players (defined as a player with at least one pension-credited season) other than quarterbacks or "injured players" (as defined in CBA Article 21, Section 6) may report to a club's preseason training camp no earlier than 15 days prior to the club's first scheduled preseason game or July 15, whichever is later.

Veteran quarterbacks and injured players may be required to report to the club's preseason training camp no earlier than five days immediately prior to the mandatory reporting date for all other veteran players, provided the club has already opened (or simultaneously opens) its official preseason training camp for all rookies and first-year players.

A three-day acclimation period will apply to players who are on a club's roster up to and including the mandatory veteran reporting date. Players who join the roster after that date may practice (including wearing pads) and play immediately after passing a physical.

July 22* -- Signing Period ends for unrestricted Free Agents to whom a "May 9 Tender" was made by prior club. After this date and until 4:00 p.m., New York time, on the Tuesday following the 10th weekend of the regular season, prior club has exclusive negotiating rights.

* or the first scheduled day of the first NFL training camp, whichever is later.

July 22 -- Signing Period ends for Transition Players with outstanding tenders. After this date and until 4:00 p.m., New York time, on the Tuesday following the 10th weekend of the regular season, prior club has exclusive negotiating rights.

August 3 -- Hall of Fame Game, Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium, Canton, Ohio

August 5 -- Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony, Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium, Canton, Ohio.

Should Detroit Pay Matthew Stafford $25 Million?

The fact is Stafford hasn’t earned anything near this kind of money. He’s 0-3 in the playoffs. When the games mattered most down the stretch -- the final three games of this regular season, when the Lions had a chance to start exorcising the ghost of Bobby Layne -- Stafford fell flat. He threw two touchdowns and three interceptions in double-digit losses.

Stafford is owed $16.5M salary and $5.5M bonus in 2017. It would not surprise me even a little bit if they Lions drafted a QB in the second or third round in the upcoming draft. The team may decide paying north of $20M is a mistake and begin thinking about a fresh start.

Chicago Bears Discuss Team Draft Process

Salute: Chicago Bears

In an exclusive interview with ChicagoBears.com at the Senior Bowl, Bears general manager Ryan Pace described the team's draft process from beginning to end.

The Bears hold the third overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft following a 3-13 season in 2016.

Carolina Panthers Draft Needs

Salute: Carolina Panthers

During a conversation with Panthers.com at the Senior Bowl, Rotoworld and NBC Sports draft analyst Josh Norris identified a few areas of need for Carolina that could be addressed in the 2017 NFL Draft.

Romo Trade to Denver Financially Unlikely

Salute: KUSA-TV

But also for financial and cap purposes, the Broncos likely would only express interest in Romo if he is released. That way, the Broncos would be in better position to negotiate a reduced contract with Romo.

Romo is scheduled to make $14M in salary and $10.7M in bonuses for 2017. There is no way on earth Denver will take on that kind of salary who will shortly be 37-years-old. Denver has an estimated $36M of cap space available next year. It makes no sense to spend two-thirds of that on an aging and frequently injured QB.

Colts Hire Actual GM With Front Office Experience and Everything

Ballard turned down an opportunity to interview for the G.M. job in San Francisco but was interested in the job in Indianapolis.

This makes San Francisco's hire of John Lynch seem even weirder. Ballard, working behind John Dorsey in Kansas City was ready to be a real GM, but the San Francisco "questionably genuine" GM job didn't interest him enough to interview. Add the lengthy list of candidates who pulled out of consideration for the 49'ers job and you have almost incontrovertible proof the GM power resides in someone other than the GM.

On the other hand, now Ballard gets to work with a franchise that already has their QB and can build around him...a far better situation than in San Francisco.

And the Winner of the 49'ers GM Sweepstakes is John Lynch?

Lynch, 45, has been working as a game analyst for FOX and has no front-office experience.

What this means is that he's a figurehead and the real powers of a traditional General Manager are vested in someone else. There is no way on this green earth that John Lynch just becomes somebody's GM with full powers and authority as his peers with no prior front office experience.

Not even the currently moribund 49'ers are capable of that.

I think.

Pittsburgh Sick of Antonio Brown's Crap

The latest piece of evidence comes from Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, who writes in a recap of the team’s objectives for 2017 that “Brown’s antics are wearing thin on some of his teammates and certainly his coaches.”

OK, his antics are wearing thin. Fine. How are his numbers wearing? 106/1284/12? Yeah, those number fit just fine. Look, this guy is the best receiver in the game. His antics don't prevent him from producing or playing. If this is a negotiating ploy by the Steelers, it's clumsy at best. The line of teams who would gladly put up with his nonsense would be lengthy.

Bottom line: Antonio Brown is an NFL wide receiver. This is how NFL wide receivers act. Thus, until Pittsburgh can replace Brown's production, they're going to have to live with some silliness.

One final thought: Is Pittsburgh annoyed with Martavis Bryant's antics? The ones that got him SUSPENDED for all of 2016? I have read no stories about that.

5 Things Cowboys Must Do to Win Super Bowl LII

Salute: SportsDay/Dallas News

After the best record in the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys were two wins away from an appearance in the Super Bowl, until Aaron Rodgers happened.

Well, 13-3 with a rookie QB is one hell of an accomplishment. And it wasn't a cheap 13-3. It wasn't a fluke. Dallas has their QB-of-the-future, a stud RB, and an offensive line that is the envy of every other franchise. The hard part has been taken care of. The Cowboys, barring mayhem and calamity, are going to be good for a very long time.

Early 2017 Dynasty Position Rankings QB/RB

You’ll notice that the following set of rankings err toward youth when players are of similar ability. All listed ages are for next season’s opening day. These rankings are based on standard scoring and would only change slightly for PPR.

Saturday, January 28, 2017

Aaron Rodgers Can't Do That; Fined by NFL

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was fined $9,115 for grabbing Atlanta’s Robert Alford and pulling his facemask off in the NFC Championship Game.

What was truly funny was Alford's blatant flop after Rodgers brushed him after the play. Wouldn't you think his defensive teammates would be all over him for letting a QB knock him on his can?

Frankly, the only thing more entertaining is when a kicker gets flagged for a late hit. I always enjoy that.

Rodgers argued the play but he wasn't going to win that one as evidenced by the photograph below. Regardless, Rodgers remains one of the league's best tackle football players.

Jay Ajayi and Miami want Kenny Stills to Return

Salute: Palm Beach Post

“Kenny’s a great guy, a hard-working teammate,” Ajayi said after AFC Pro Bowl practice today. “We reaped the benefits of that this year and we saw him take another step in the right direction.

Stills provided a nice target opposite Jarvis Landry in 2016 with a 42/726/9 season. He finished the season with 145 fantasy points, 44th among wide receivers.

Top Three Off-Season Needs: Cleveland Browns

Projected 2017 cap space (via Over the Cap): $110,438,388

First and twelfth overall pick in draft.

The Browns have the ammunition to get well quickly. Picks 1 and 12 could turn into an edge pass rusher and QB. And don't forget, the Browns also have the first pick of the second round at 33, which may very well be where they take a QB in order to minimize some risk.

Keep an eye on Cleveland. A few breaks, smart free agent spending, and a good draft could put the Dawg Pound back on the map after a 1-15 record in 2016.

Top Three Off-Season Needs: Miami Dolphins

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $30,734,458

22nd pick in draft

Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for T Ja’Wuan James

Top Three Off-Season Needs: Buffalo Bills

The Bills have shuffled through seven different full-time head coaches since their most recent postseason trip, and they’re now looking for yet another as a result of Rex Ryan‘s late-December dismissal.

The Bills have some cap flexibility heading into the off-season. Despite Tyrod Taylor's 5-year/$90M contract kicking in for 2017, the team is estimated to be $29M under the cap. The Bills also have the tenth pick of the first round in the 2017 NFL Draft.

Too Early to Speculate About Teddy Bridgewater's Future

Could he miss all of 2017? Yes. Could he be ready for Week One? Yes. Could he return at some point in between? Yes.

The injury to Teddy Bridgewater is having long-term implications for the Vikings. Not only did the lose a good, young quarterback in a season of great promise, they had to give up a first-round draft pick to get his replacement. In addition, that replacement, Sam Bradford, is due a $4M roster bonus in March and $13M salary in 2017. Bridgewater is scheduled to make just $2.179M in 2017.

Top Three Offseason Needs of the Minnesota Vikings

Friday, January 27, 2017

Packers To Be Free-Agent Players?

From time to time, a report will emerge that the Packers intend to become more active in free agency. Most recently, Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reported that the Packers will pursue free agents this year.

The Julius Peppers signing was three years ago. It didn't help. If a Packer foray into free agency is going to produce fruit, it's going to have to involve more than one player.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Packers Want Eddie Lacy Back

“I’d love to see him back,” said McCarthy, who added that the team won’t decide whether to re-sign Lacy until he “clears the medical threshold.”

Lacy cleared the 1,100-yard threshold his first two seasons. In '15, he was injured and overweight. In '16, he was just plain injured, missing 11 games. His rookie contract expires this year and the Packers have a big decision to make.

In other Packer running back news, Ty Montgomery is now a permanent running back. He had some success in '16, on the rare occasions that Green Bay actually ran the ball, but his durability worries me. I don't care how many times play-by-play guys tell me he weighs 220 pounds, I find it a) hard to believe and b) I cringe every time he takes a big hit because he looks so slight. As for the other Packers back, James Starks, I think his time in Green Bay is likely done. He missed the stretch run with a concussion suffered in a car accident and he wasn't very good when he did play.

"Success" Must Mean Something Different to Mike McCarthy

“We reached a very high level of success this year,” McCarthy said, via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “I would say our team clearly had a successful season, without a doubt. I don’t know why we’re even questioning that.”

I'll tell you why we're questioning that...you needed to win six straight to win the division after a 4-6 start which included four straight terrible losses. We're questioning that because if Aaron Rodgers doesn't enter his Zen/Michael Jordan/Justifiable Homicide level of play in those six games, you don't make the playoffs because your defense couldn't stop a third-grader from crossing a street. We're questioning that because you have had two Hall of Fame QB's in your tenure in Green Bay and have delivered only ONE Super Bowl appearance. We're questioning that because you have talent all over the place that underachieves year after year after year. And that's when they're not all hurt at the same time. And finally, we're questioning that because the only staff change seems to be Tom Clements, who has been successful in Green Bay. Dom Capers seems to still have a job despite a defense that can't do things that good defenses do (I ran out of pithy comparisons here. Sorry.).

Aaron Rodgers is right. This team needs to reload, not rebuild. But, if guys can't play, if the defense can't stop anybody, if Ted Thompson doesn't become a little more flexible toward the idea of free agency when filling needs, they are going to waste more prime quarterbacking and falling short of what Green Bay's yearly goal should be. The Super Bowl.

Today's Kirk Cousins Update

“We will cross that bridge when we come to it, but I would probably do what I did last year,” Cousins said on ESPN. “I will sign it and play with it. I’m not afraid.”

Of course, he'll sign it. That tag will be worth a ton of money. And, there has been no change in my thinking over the last few days...what is Washington thinking? Why are they not signing an extension and moving on? This is a quarterback who got you into the playoffs in '15 and saved your bacon when the RGIII debacle could have decimated your franchise. It's also a top-ten guy who is only getting better.

I guess some things are not for we average dudes to understand.

Joe Thomas Has Been Reading This Blog. Well, it Seems Like it...

“I think you need to get a pass rusher. … You gotta be careful reaching for a quarterback at No. 1 because if they fail, they don’t help your team at all. Whereas if you pick a defensive lineman and maybe they don’t live up to the hype, you can still find a place to get him on the field and to have an impact.

Seriously, he has to have been reading this blog. I mean, he's from Wisconsin, I'm from Wisconsin, it just has to be. Right? (Just in case....Hi, Joe!)

Myles Garrett has to be the pick here. Not just because I say so. But, because the best player in Cleveland says so. Right?

Carolina Won't Reach to Fill Needs

"No matter how bad the perceived need is, I’m not going to reach.”

A wise choice. Because you spent entirely too much draft capital on very little return, you spend too much cap space on even less return.

However, if there's a guy there that "MIGHT" have a chance, we'll see how resolute Gettleman remains in the face of temptation.

Because heaven knows, Carolina really needs a tackle.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

David Johnson Named Best Receiver by Pro Football Focus

Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson was selected to PFF’s All-Pro team in the new designation of “flex” player, introduced by the Associated Press this season to address the changing nature of how offenses deploy their personnel.

Johnson caught 80 passes for 879 yards and is the modern day Roger Craig; an absolute weapon out of the backfield. Johnson, a second-year pro, may be the most valuable fantasy player in all the land.

Eagles To Clean House For Free Agency

The Eagles are currently projected to head into free agency with only $7.4MM in available cap space, but de facto general manager Howie Roseman and staff are likely to create “significant” wiggle room this offseason through various roster machinations, a source tells Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.

Not many players with fantasy value; and I include Ryan Mathews in that categorization. Evidently, Philadelphia is anxious to have Carson Wentz begin putting his stamp-of-approval on a lot of transactions.

Cowboys Exercise Fifth-Year Option on Zack Martin

Salute: Bleacher Report

Martin was the 16th overall pick in 2014 and has been a standout on an offensive line that's been one of the NFL's best for the past three seasons.

This is as surprising as night following day. You don't go 13-3 and get the top seed in a conference with rookies at RB and QB without large men in front of them who are good at tackle football. Zack Martin and his colleagues are very good at tackle football.

Shocking Nobody, Ezekiel Elliott Named Sporting News Rookie of the Year

Salute: Sporting News

Rookie of the Year: NFL player voting results

1. Ezekiel Elliott

2. Dak Prescott

3. Tyreek Hill

4. Joey Bosa

5. Michael Thomas

T - 6. Jordan Howard, Jack Conklin

T - 8. Jalen Ramsey, Carson Wentz

T - 10. Noah Spence, Jared Goff, Will Fuller, Daryl Worley, Deion Jones, Anthony Brown, Michael Pierce, Yannick Ngakoue

This award is equally as obvious as the sun rising in the east tomorrow morning.

Tom Brady Named Sporting News Offensive Player of the Year

Salute: Sporting News

Either way, he won the players’ vote over a loaded field that could have justified a vote for someone else based simply on having played closer to a full season. In order, the next four finishers were the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott, the Falcons’ Matt Ryan (the favorite for the league MVP award), the Raiders’ Derek Carr and the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott.

No question Brady had a great season, but how do you pick against Matt Ryan?

Jordy Nelson Named Comeback Player of the Year

Salute: Sporting News

Nelson scored a league-high 14 touchdowns among 97 catches that generated 1,254 receiving yards.

It's no surprise that as Nelson heated up, so did Aaron Rodgers.

For the season, Nelson finished with 269 fantasy points, number-two behind Antonio Brown. Over his eight-year career, the former second-round pick has caught 497 passes for 7,366 yards and 63 TD's.

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Contract Extensions for Carr, Mack Imminent in Oakland

Salute: CBS Sports

Both players will likely be Raiders for a long, long time. General Manager Reggie McKenzie told CSN Bay Area that it's a high priority to keep both players and hinted that extensions may be coming soon for both players.

By all means, sign your franchise QB and best pass rusher, pronto! This may seem like a simple concept, but all too often, teams don't realize what they have until it's gone. Making sure your cornerstones on both sides of the ball remain so is why Reggie McKenzie was voted Executive of the Year.

And why the Raiders have started to win and will likely continue to win.

Dabo Swinney Compares DeShaun Watson to Michael Jordan; Warns Cleveland

Salute: CBS Sports

And I'm just telling you: They pass on DeShaun Watson, they're passing on Michael Jordan. I mean, I don't know what the heck I'm talking about, I'm just an old funky college coach, but DeShaun Watson is the best, by a long shot."

He may be the best, but he's either likely to be available when the Browns pick at 12 or, if Cleveland wants him bad enough, can use the ammunition they have with a ton of draft picks, to move up and grab him. The Browns have enough holes to fill that they don't have to panic to take a QB.

Team Needs: Houston Texans

We’ll continue with the Houston Texans, who are fresh off their third straight nine-win season and second consecutive AFC South title. After a 27-14 victory over the injury-plagued Raiders in the wild-card round, the Texans’ season ended at the hands of the Patriots in a 34-16 divisional romp.

Team Needs: Chicago Bears

We’ll continue this year’s series with the Chicago Bears, who regressed to a 3-13 record in their second season under head coach John Fox‘s leadership.

Wentz to Have Influence in Free Agency

Vice president of football operations Howie Roseman said on WIP that he wants to hear Wentz’s voice as they move toward his second season, particularly when it comes to players who might be catching his passes.

This is a lot to ask of a second-year QB out of an FBS school. On the other hand, this should build up enormous amounts of goodwill between player and team. Making Wentz a partner in Philadelphia's rebuilding shows the confidence they have in the young man and establishes his authority as the face of the franchise moving forward.

Jerry Jones to Clam Up About Tony Romo

“We’re at a juncture now that, we need to just cool it in our public conversations about what we’re going to be doing or not doing there with Tony.”

I believe hanging on to Romo, at a greatly reduced price, makes the most sense. Romo turns 37 in April and has a lengthy injury history. He won't bring very much in return. However, bringing him back protects a franchise relying on a young QB. And, as we saw in Minnesota with Teddy Bridgewater's injury this season, losing a QB can ruin a season that has great promise. Romo would be a very nice insurance policy, indeed.

Gruden Anticipates Cousins' Return to Washington

“I totally anticipate him coming back to the Washington Redskins,” Gruden said, via CSNMidAtlantic.com.

Rumors have been floating that link Cousins to Cleveland or San Francisco. This space considers the idea of moving Cousins to anyone as complete folly worthy of ridicule.

Monday, January 23, 2017

Memes!

Memes are the best part of the internet. Here are some football memes. Collect 'em, trade 'em, share 'em with your friends. Be the first kid on your block to get 'em all!

Three-Round Mock Draft: DeShaun Watson #1?

Salute: NFL.com

I rate the likelihood of Cleveland using the #1 overall pick on a QB to be roughly equal to Cleveland using the #1 overall pick on ME.

I think they take the pass rusher Myles Garrett from Texas A&M #1 and don't think about a QB until pick 33, which is the first pick of the second round. If there's a QB they have to have, they could trade down from 12 and get a guy later in the first, even better.

With $50M in carryover salary cap, Cleveland is going to have a very active offseason.

Also: There is no way on God's green earth the Jets spend ANOTHER high draft pick on a QB. None.

Early 2017 Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings

Eric Karabell has weighed in with his early 2017 Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings...a very good read.

Salute: ESPN.com

Here are my standard (non-PPR) rankings and indeed they will be changing due to offseason player movement, the NFL draft and whatever else tends to affect rankings.

In an attempt to differentiate from other rankings, these are done in tiers and broken down by position.

Just glancing at this list, I have a couple of places of disagreement. If Jared Cook returns to Green Bay, he has to be ranked higher than just Tier 5. He provides a weapon that Aaron Rodgers hasn't had since Jermichael Finley; a tight end with speed that can work the middle of the field.

I think Kirk Cousins is far closer to the top tier than the fourth. He's turned in two top-five seasons in a row.

Jarvis Landry is better than a tier-four guy, too. I love slot guys. I'll happily trade the TD's for consistently higher catch totals. Julien Edelmen should be worth more than tier-three, too. And for the same reason.

Regardless, we can argue about this all winter. And, insofar as there is but one game remaining in this season, we'll have to. We need something to do until training camp starts.

Packer Secondary Not Very Good. Water is Wet. Grass is Green.

This season, however, the wheels fell off the wagon almost entirely for the young group.

No kidding. Everybody ran roughshod over the Packer secondary all season long. Of course, it would be helpful to these youngsters if the Packers were able to mount a consistent pass rush. Alas, it was not to be and Atlanta will be playing in the Super Bowl instead of Green Bay.

Critical Off-Season for Ravens

Salute: Baltimore Sun

Two starters (Steve Smith Sr. and Orr) have retired. Another five players who were either full-time starters or started a good chunk of the season (fullback Kyle Juszczyk, offensive linemen Rick Wagner and Vladimir Ducasse, nose tackle Brandon Williams and defensive end Lawrence Guy) are unrestricted free agents. A slew of reserves, including quarterback Ryan Mallett, wide receiver Kamar Aiken, cornerback Jerraud Powers, safety Matt Elam and special teams standout Anthony Levine Sr., are also eligible to hit the open market in a little over six weeks.

Ozzie Newsome needs better luck out of the draft. Several high draft picks have not performed as expected. How the club manages the cap is probably the most important job going forward; hitting on some low and mid-round draft picks will only help.

Redskins Eat Loco Weed; Considering Trading Cousins

A Washington source tells Jason Cole that the Redskins are willing to weigh their options in regards to QB Kirk Cousins including the possibility of trading him to another team.

This is insanity. Why, if you're the Redskins, do you trade a top-drawer quarterback?

Consider: You trade Cousins for draft picks. And you use the picks on what? Another QB? So you're going to turn over the reins to a playoff contender to an untested rookie when you already have a proven QB that you just traded?

How does that make any sense at all?

For Cleveland, this makes some sense. The Browns are carrying over more than $50M of unused salary cap from 2016 and they have a metric crap-ton of draft picks at their disposal. And, Lord knows, they need a QB.

This has to be just blowing smoke for contract negotiations because none of this makes any sense from the Redskins' standpoint.

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Patriots to Shop Jimmy Garoppolo?

In 2016, Garoppolo has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 502 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions for the Patriots over the course of six games.

I think summarily moving Garoppolo is foolish. And Bill Belichick is not the type of guy to do something foolish.

Tom Brady, as great as he is, turns 40 in August. In Garoppolo, you have a young quarterback who is making peanuts. He's currently in the third year of his four-year rookie contract and made just $686,718 in 2016. Plus, he's been in the system and has played well in limited opportunities. Remember, Brady was a sixth-round selection, number 199 overall. Taking a long-term chance on that kind of player is not unusual in Foxboro. And finally, if there's a possibility you already have the QB-of-the-future on your roster, a couple of draft picks aren't going to equal his value.

Raiders to Extend Jack Del Rio?

Jack Del Rio just finished the second year of a four-year contract that he signed in January of last year, but Raiders owner Mark Davis has reportedly been really impressed with the job Del Rio has done for them.

As well he should be. One of the great hallmarks of those wonderful Raider teams was stability. Of course, you had Al Davis at the top, but you also had Hall of Famers Ron Wolf and John Madden. And when Madden retired, the Raiders stayed in the family and hired Tom Flores and the winning continued.

Not only is Del Rio a really good coach, but GM Reggie McKenzie was named Executive of the Year. McKenzie has done a superb job turning that franchise around through all facets of player acquisition. Most importantly, they have a franchise QB in Derek Carr.

My recommendation for Mark Davis is to whip out the pen and checkbook and keep Del Rio in Oakland. Or Los Angeles. Or Las Vegas. Or Vladivostok. Or wherever the team is going to call home. When you have stability, you're that much closer to being a consistent winner in this league.

More From Atlanta...

Salute: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

The Packers trailed by 17 in the closing seconds of the first half when cornerback LaDarius Gunter dropped a potential interception in the end zone on a pass intended for Mohamed Sanu. One play later, Ryan zipped a back-shoulder throw to Julio Jones, who turned away from Gunter and tapped both feet in bounds for a deflating score. The lead swelled to 24 as the Packers jogged toward their locker room in disbelief.

Very simply, this loss was on the defense. They couldn't pressure Matt Ryan, they couldn't get off the field, they couldn't take advantage of Atlanta miscues. Even Aaron Rodgers at his video-game-like best was going to be hard-pressed to save the day.

Patriots Win; Advance to Franchise's Ninth Super Bowl

Brady was 34-of-42 passing for 384 yards and three scores. It was his ninth career three-touchdown performance in the postseason, tying Joe Montana for the most in that category. And that underscores the kind of historic company he’s keeping, as he leads the Patriots to their ninth Super Bowl appearance.

I have no skin in the Super Bowl game. At all. But, I think it would be kind of fun to see the look on Roger Goodell's face when he has to hand Brady, Belichick, and Robert Kraft the Lombardi Trophy.

Mike McCarthy is Captain Obvious

“We ran into a buzzsaw,” McCarthy said during his postgame press conference. “…We couldn’t overcome the pace that these guys were playing. They played lights out and it got away from us.”

The Packers were never in this game. Crosby's missed 41-yard field goal on Green Bay's first possession meant nothing. Aaron Ripkowski's fumble inside the Atlanta 10-yard-line didn't mean anything either. Matt Ryan was untouchable and unstoppable and probably even more dominating than Rodgers during the Packer eight-game win streak. Simply put, the Steelers of the 70's and the '85 Bears and the Purple People Eaters would have gotten thrashed, too.

The Packers defense has never been confused for any of those three teams.

Rodgers Says Team Needs to Reload, not Rebuild

Rodgers said he thinks the team “can take a big step this offseason,” but that the changes didn’t need to be major ones in order for that to happen.

I somewhat agree. I am a big believer in building teams through the draft with only sparse free agent moves. I don't see where that philosophy needs to change. But, Green Bay needs some new pieces and to keep some old ones. T.J. Lang, if he isn't wiped out by today's injury, needs to return. As does Micah Hyde, a personal favorite of mine. So does Jared Cook. But the team needs a ton of help on defense. A decision needs to be made on Sam Shields' possible return. The two kids they drafted in 2015, Randall and Rollins, need to figure out how to play after they get the smell of smoke off of them. Another pass rusher would help as would a run-stuffing inside linebacker.

Green Bay won't get all those pieces in the draft. Ted Thompson, the Packer GM, may have to break protocol and get one or two. After all, the window on Rodgers' amazing career isn't going to remain open forever.

It would be an absolute shame if the Favre-Rodgers era brought home only two Lombardi Trophies when there was potential for so much more.

Atlanta Smashes Crap out of Green Bay; Advances to Super Bowl

Ryan threw for 392 yards and four touchdowns, and he also ran for a touchdown in the first half. The Falcons led by 24 at halftime and were at 400 total yards before the Packers got 130. They led 31-0 before the Packers scored.

And it wasn't even that close.

There have been calls for Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers' head for several years. This may be the year. In fairness, he was playing with this fifth and sometimes sixth corner, Nick Perry with a club on one hand, and a banged up Clay Matthews. But, injuries cannot be an excuse. Everybody has injuries this time of year. Quite simply, the Packers cannot get pressure on a quarterback to save their lives.

And one more thing, nobody seems to get as injured as Green Bay. Either they need to draft more durable players or take a cold, hard look at the training staff because the weekly injury list is beginning to rival War and Peace for length.

For those of us who live in Wisconsin, winter starts today. And it's gonna be a long, cold, dark, wet, awful winter.

Again.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Indy Makes a GM Change

Grigson had ample opportunity to build a team around Andrew Luck in Indianapolis, and he failed to do so. As a result, he’s out.

And this is the problem with having a franchise quarterback...you're going to pay so much money to keep the rarest and most-important commodity in pro football that you lose salary cap flexibility to build the rest of your roster. The Colts signed Luck to a 5-year, $122.9 million contract. A whopping $87 million is guaranteed. Even with rising caps, that's a lot taken off the top; money that now can't be spent on other parts of the roster.

This also explains why the draft is so vitally important to building winners. If you aren't getting contributions from inexpensive players on their first contracts, it's hard to carry big-money talent at the top of your roster. Again, look no further than the teams that are consistently successful for long periods of time. They build through the draft and street free agents and the rare unrestricted free agent. Successful teams realize that managing the salary cap is the most important aspect of running a franchise. The teams that consistently pick at the top of the draft never seem to get that message.

The Priest Holmes Tragedy--Book Excerpt

Our auction draft produces what we call base-value contracts. Which is simply this: the price at which a team wins a player at auction becomes the starting point for any future contract values. To wit: If you draft a player for $10 this year, you can "extend" that contract to $13 in year 2, $16 in year 3, $19 in year four and so on. There are two options leagues have for handling contracts. The first way, and this is how we played the first ten years of our league, is that all contract extensions are fully guaranteed. There is no way out of a bad contract. The new way, and how we've played the last few seasons, is to allow for "Contract Amnesty," which basically allows teams to "buy out" contracts for real money (which is placed in the prize pool) and get cap relief.

What you will read below is an excerpt from Franchise Fantasy Football: A Fantasy Football Revolution. The story tells of the trials and tribulations of being aggressive with contract extensions. Namely, the sad and sorry tale of one of our owners who spent big money on Kansas City Running Back Priest Holmes and paid dearly for his trouble.

You can buy the whole book HERE.

The next story of heartbreak and woe is the real-life reason our Peterson owner balked at taking a longer-term risk. Yes, it’s time now for the obligatory recitation of the Priest Holmes Tragedy.

The career of Priest Holmes is a great story. He was undrafted out of the University of Texas, signed in 1997 by the Baltimore Ravens and released after 48 games over four seasons. Holmes was then picked up by the Kansas City Chiefs following the 2000 season. Once he donned the Chiefs’ uniform, Holmes ran amok across the NFL landscape, scoring 21 touchdowns in 2002 and a whopping 27 TDs in 2003. Holmes, unquestionably, was an absolute superstar; a three-time Pro Bowler and three-times named First Team All-Pro; he and the Chiefs were clearly riding a gravy train with biscuit wheels. 2004 was an injury-marred season for Holmes, but he still lit up the league for 15 touchdowns while playing just eight games. During his first four Kansas City seasons, Holmes scored 76 total touchdowns and had three seasons over 2,000 combined rushing and receiving yards. Prior to the 2005 season, the Oshkosh franchise drafted Holmes at auction for $33. A respectable sum, but with Franchise Fantasy Football, one must consider the context in which a player is purchased. Some of the other auction values for running backs that season included:

LaDanian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander: $46
Steven Jackson: $42
Willis McGahee and Edgerrin James: $40
Julius Jones: $39
Rudi Johnson: $37
LaMont Jordan and Dominack Davis: $35

With those figures in mind, $33 for Priest Holmes coming off of a 15-touchdown season, albeit an injury-shortened 15-TD season, seemed pretty reasonable. But remember, once you extended a contract, your team was responsible for every last dollar of the contract. Teams were able to cut the player to open up the roster spot, but were still responsible for the cap number. Further, our extensions had to be done by week eight of that season; meaning a decision on Holmes’ long-term future with the Oshkosh franchise had to be determined by mid-season in the year in which he was drafted. Oshkosh had only two choices. Extend Holmes for multiple future seasons or lose him back into the auction pool for 2006. So, based on Holmes career performance, Oshkosh pulled the trigger on a five-year deal:

$33 in 2005
$39 in 2006
$45 in 2007
$51 in 2008
$57 in 2009

Alas, it was not to be for our intrepid owner. Holmes was injured in just the seventh game of that five-year contract. He missed the remainder of 2005 and all of 2006. He did return for 2007, but his comeback lasted just four more games and he subsequently announced his retirement from the National Football League. In summation, the Priest Holmes contract was scheduled to last for 80 games, but Oshkosh only received eleven at a total cost of $225 or 15% of the Oshkosh salary cap for those five seasons. Oshkosh paid over $20 per game for Priest Holmes.

Oshkosh may have been able to weather the storm on Holmes had they possessed some salary cap flexibility. But, the Donovan McNabb Travesty robbed the club of $43 in 2006 and $49 in 2007. Yet, Oshkosh wasn’t done with their profligacy. Marvin Harrison was on board for $46 and $52 for those two years. Corey Dillon’s contract also had two years to run at $35 and $40. And when the team wasn’t drafting expensive players, they were making trades for them. Oshkosh picked up Nate Burleson for $32 and Chris Chambers for $42 before the 2006 season. Oshkosh had put himself in salary cap jail. For all these reasons, just two years later, the aforementioned Adrian Peterson cost his owner just $16 as teams decided the reward was not worth the level of risk.

49'ers to Pursue Kirk Cousins?

Adam Schefter mentions that the 49ers will pursue Kirk Cousins in free agency as hard as they did Kyle Shanahan if the Redskins don’t sign him to an extension or use their franchise tag on him.

If Daniel Snyder doesn't sign Kirk Cousins to a long-term deal, no one will be more surprised than me. After all, Snyder is the guy who gave Albert Haynesworth megabucks to do absolutely nothing and Cousins has been excellent.

Fantasy-wise, Cousins improved on his tenth-ranked 2015 season to be the #5 QB in 2016. Over those two years, he has been a huge bargain. No more. For 2017, if he remains in Washington, he should be valued from $25-$35. Even $40 wouldn't be totally out of line. He's that good.

Cleveland in Stalemate with Isaiah Crowell in Contract Talks

In 2016, Crowell appeared in all 16 games for the Browns and rushed for 952 yards on 198 carries (4.8 YPC) to go along with 40 receptions for 319 yards receiving and seven total touchdowns.

The Browns will carry over more than $50M in cap room into the 2017 season. They need to spend it somewhere, I guess.

Crowell does have some fantasy value. He finished 2016 with 178 points, good for 17th place among running backs; which was better than both Todd Gurley and Matt Forte, two RB's who made a whole lot more than Crowell in 2016. Going forward, it wouldn't be out of line with current pricing to spend between $15-$25 next season on him.

Tony Romo to Kansas City?

Could Arrowhead Stadium be a potential landing spot for Dallas quarterback Tony Romo? ESPN thinks so:

Salute: ESPN.com

But it better have at least occurred to the Chiefs that they might have gone as far as they can with Alex Smith as their quarterback.

An interesting idea, but what about Alex Smith? He has two years remaining on a four-year, $68M contract. Smith is scheduled to make $16.9M in 2017 and $20.6M in 2018. The Chiefs will owe Smith a $2 roster bonus on March 11th.

Obviously, Kansas City has a decision to make on Smith. But, is Romo the answer? He's coming off two consecutive injury-filled seasons and turns 37 in March. Sure, he's been a very good NFL QB, but do you move on from the reliable Smith and turn over the offense to a guy who has played in only five out of 32 games over the past two seasons? Know that if Kansas City does this, Romo isn't going to move up I-35 and play for free. Cut Smith this year and take a $7.2M dead money hit AND pay Romo upwards of $8-$10M? If I'm John Dorsey, this is not a chance I'm willing to take, especially in the final year of HIS contract.

Personally, I wonder why Jerry Jones doesn't offer Romo above-backup-market money to keep him. Romo has a $24M cap number for 2017; why not make some adjustments and keep him around? As good as Dak Prescott is, having a security blanket of Romo's quality may very well be the best way to utilize him. Why let a future promising season be ruined by an injured Prescott?

As for fantasy value, Smith has been a bargain his entire career. If you're the type to carry three QB's, he's generally available for a buck or two. Romo is no longer worth the big money he used to command. He may fetch up to $10 at auction depending on where he ends up; but no more.

Johnny Manziel Claims Sobriety; Wants to Play Again

Salute: ESPN.com

Johnny Manziel says he has achieved sobriety without professional assistance and is determined to resume his career in the NFL.

Let's hope this is true. Regardless of how you feel about the guy, having him dead from the ravages of whatever substances he put in his body serves nobody's purposes.

As for any fantasy value: he has none. If someone signs him, you might spend a dollar of your salary cap, but certainly no more. If he can play two or three trouble-free seasons, that dollar may become two. Until then, steer clear.

The Michael Jordan Flu Game Redux?

Aaron Rodgers is already playing at a Jordan-level. Why not repeat history?

Salute: Pro Football Talk

Let me give you some free advice. I am a high school librarian, this time of year, our library sounds like a TB ward. To ward off the flu, I drink a glass of no-sugar-added grape juice every day. And I get a flu shot every year. You would think the Packer training staff would require the same from every player. You would think the Steelers training staff would, too, insofar as 15 of their players have been affected by flu.

Of greater concern, if Rodgers is able to stagger into the Georgia Dome on his own two feet, who will he throw to? Jordy Nelson, Davonte Adams, and Geronimo Allison are all hurt and are game-time decisions.

Friday, January 20, 2017

The Minnesota Vikings are Whistling in the Dark

Salute: Minneapolis StarTribune

It’s not a strong class of offensive linemen,” Dane Brugler, a draft analyst for CBS Sports said. We might have two or three offensive linemen drafted in the first round, and even that is a stretch.”

The point Brugler is trying to make is that because even though the Vikings desperately need to improve their offensive line and there aren't many good offensive linemen available in the draft so not having a first-rounder doesn't hurt.

My response:

It's about scarcity. There aren't many linemen. On that, we can agree. That means teams who need linemen are going to move earlier to get those that are available; essentially driving the price up. And by price, I mean draft stock. You'll have to spend more and more valuable picks to get less valuable offensive linemen. So, the Vikings don't have a first, which would have been the 14th overall pick, and have to spend second or third round stock on fifth or sixth round value.

In a word: yuck.

Look, Teddy Bridgewater's horrific knee injury in training camp derailed the 2016 season and is having a negative effect on 2017 because the team had to spend their first-rounder to get Sam Bradford. The team felt they had a shot at a deep run, but after a 5-0 start finished just 8-8 and out of the playoffs.

That was one expensive knee injury.

And the one thing teams need to rebuild is draft picks, preferably high draft picks. Which the Vikings don't have in 2017. Sure, there's a lot of talent in free agency. Getting T.J. Lang from Green Bay accomplishes two things, weakening a divisional opponent while improving your own team. But, he and other free agents won't come cheap, and the Vikings carryover only $400K in salary cap from 2016, the fourth-least in the NFL.

When you're building an NFL team, the big guys matter most. Simply look around at who the best teams and improving teams are. Dallas, Green Bay, Atlanta. Really good offensive lines. Tennessee is getting better because their line is getting to be very good. Minnesota? A dumpster fire. Because they have spent only two picks in the first three rounds on offensive linemen in THE LAST TEN DRAFTS.

I think you're pickin' up what I'm puttin' down.

Pray for Sam Bradford. He's gonna need all the help he can get next year.

2017 NFL Free Agents By Position

Salute: NFL.com

There is some desirable fantasy football talent that will be heading to free agency. An all-star list includes:

QB-Kirk Cousins

RB-Le'Veon Bell

RB-Eddie Lacy

WR-Alshon Jeffrey

WR-DeSean Jackson

TE-Jared Cook

TE-Martellus Bennett

TE-Dion Sims

All these guys will have some serious fantasy value in 2017. Pay close attention to their landing spot to determine their value. For example, if Jared Cook returns to Green Bay, he will be a whole lot more valuable than if he goes to Cleveland. If Jeffrey returns to Chicago, he may be worth less than if he ends up in Tennessee or Carolina. Cousins and Bell, however, are probably equally valuable no matter where they end up.

2017 Salary Cap Carryovers by Team