As proof, from 2006 to 2015, 47 different players had 50-plus targets with a touchdown on at least 10 percent of those targets (2014 Julius Thomas, with 12 touchdowns on 60 targets, was the only one of that list to crack the 20-percent threshold). In the aggregate, those 47 players scored 545 touchdowns on 4,364 targets, reaching pay-dirt 12.49 percent of the time. The next year, those same players combined for 238 touchdowns on 4,002 targets, dropping the percentage to 5.95. In other words, the guys at the upper bound of touchdown scoring saw their success rate drop to roughly half.
What does this all mean? Well, four players made the list of 50 targets and 10 percent touchdowns in 2016 — Kenny Stills (12 percent), Martellus Bennett (10.61), Cameron Brate (10.26) and Davante Adams (10.17). All four were fantasy producers to varying degrees last year, and odds are good that all four will be at the least less efficient in 2017.
Adams was drafted for $3 last season. Hard to see where he won't triple that number, even at the project lower figures for 2017. He does play with Aaron Rodgers, so it's likely worth the risk. If Bennett stays in New England, not likely, he'd be worth a decent figure, too, because of Brady. And if Jameis Winston continues to develop in Tampa and Kenny Stills ends up with a quality QB, you could see spending money on them, and getting the commensurate production, too.
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